Buy, Sell or Hold? NCAA champion in 2011-2012

The odds are out for the national championship in 2011-2012. I always find it interesting to see who the favorites are pre-season and then compare it to the actual results in April 2012.

By no means am I condoning wagering on these odds. I consider gambling on sports to be investing for people who are bad at math.

Regardless, odds are usually set based on overrating last year's performance and also taking guesses on how well transfers and incoming freshmen will perform.

Here is where I see the value for 2011-2012. These are the characteristics I value for a legitimate shot at a national championship:

Veteran backcourt leadership- players that can control tempo; value the basketball in tight games and know when and where to get their teammates touches.

Strong rebounding team- hard to find a national champion that didn't control the glass.

Defensive field goal percentage under 40%- this is a must. John Wooden often said defensive field goal percentage is the most important stat in a game.

Go-to scorer- to win the NCAA tourney, you need at least one guy that wants the ball and can deliver in the clutch. And that player usually must force his way to the hoop. That was the big difference in Dirk Nowitzski this year versus years' past. In the past, the game was on the line and he shot fadeaways. This year, he took the ball to the rim and got layups or foul shots.

A list of odds can be found on this website:

Buy:

UConn 30-1: Lost Kemba Walker. That is a huge void to fill. He was a top 5 player. But he also shot only 43% from the field and 33% from 3. Defense won that team a lot of games. The defending national champs return most of their key players minus Walker and Okwandu (C).

Lamb, Oriakhi, Smith, Napier and others return. They also signed two impact freshmen in Ryan Boatright (G) and Deandre Daniels (F). Daniels was a late surprise to UConn after most believed he would go to Kansas or Texas. Younger backcourt- but experienced. Napier and Lamb should be considered upper classmen in the swag they bring- lots of big game experience.

Baylor 50-1: Homer pick on my part. But this is one extremely talented team with a lot of experience. The frontcourt is probably the deepest and longest in the country. Perry Jones 6'11" 240lbs; Bobo Morgan 6'11" 240 lbs; Anthony Jones 6'11" 200lbs; Quincy Miller 6'10" 215lbs; Cory Jefferson 6'9" 220lbs. All six of those guys were national top 50 type recruits. And you throw in Quincy Acy at 6'7" 230lbs and you have one potentially nightmarish frontcourt for opponents to deal with.

Baylor's season will hinge on its backcourt. There is experience and skill there. JUCO player of the year- Pierre Jackson; returning starter/big 12 steals leader- AJ Walton; Gary Franklin- starter at Cal will be eligible 2nd semester; and the coaches have been raving about Brady Heslip's- transfer from Boston College- ability to shoot and basketball IQ. Throw in athletic freak Deuce Bello- a top 50 recruit. If 3 of those guards pan out well, Baylor will be a team capable of winning it all.

Vanderbilt 100-1: I'm baffled by this one. They return their top 8 players from a 23-11 team. And a very good recruiting class- two top 100 national players. Good PG that can control tempo and get the ball to scorers? Check (Tinsley). Shooting guard that can fill it up? Check (Jenkins). Go to scorer in tight games? Check (Taylor). Dominant defensive big man? Check (Ezeli). What is not to like?

Texas A&M 100-1: Undervalued. There is a new coach (Kennedy) and that is always an unknown. But they have the making of a good team that can potentially win the big 12. There is a potential star in Khris Middleton (14 pts; 5 reb). A go to big man on the blocks (Loubeau). Tough, strong interior defenders/rebounders- Roberson and Turner. A potential impact transfer (Turner from Washington). A highly touted PG coming in (Jamal Branch).

Honorable mention: Florida 40-1 (terrific backcourt- arguably the nation's best with Walker, Boynton, Beal, transfer Rosario and Wilbekin) Missouri 75-1 (all their best players returning).

Sell:

Memphis 30-1: Pastner has shown an ability to pick up where Calipari left off in terms of recruiting the nation's best players. Pastner signed the #1 class in 2010-2011. All of those players are returning to school for their sophomore campaigns. Adonis Thomas- a 5-star wing is coming on board for 2011-2012. It is a team full of talent. But Pastner is still learning on the fly. I believe he will have a long, successful career. But does he have the moxy to make a deep tournament run this year after experiencing a shake-up on the staff? Cyprien left for A&M. Willis Wilson was named the head coach of Texas A&M Commerce.

I may be wrong about Memphis, but I don't see enough interior strength to win slugfests. Tarik Black is a beast at 6'8" 252. But the team as a whole is athletic but thin. I also think the staff turnover does have an effect. The same could be said for A&M and Missouri who are on my "buy" list. But those are teams with lots of talented juniors and seniors. Memphis is going to be a predominately underclassmen led squad.

Texas 30-1. What in the world? They have better odds than all the "buy" teams I listed? I don't see it. I understand that they exceeded expectations last year. And Rick Barnes has consistently finished at the top of the big 12. In February they looked like the best team in the country especially after they dismantled Kansas in Lawrence in the 2nd half on the road. But championships aren't decided in February. Rick Barnes has taken teams to the NCAA for 16 years in a row. There is a lot to be said for that consistency. But he has only been to the Final Four once despite the ability to field an NBA all-star team with former players- Augustin, Durant, Aldridge, etc.. and last year was one of his better shots to repeat that. This year's team should be a large drop-off.

They lost about 80% of their scoring and rebounding. They return J'Covan Brown, Alexis Wangemene and Clint Chapman (redshirt). They do have a good freshman class coming in- but only one who is considered a "difference" maker- Myck Kabongo. This could be Rick Barnes' weakest team on paper since he has been at Texas. And like Memphis, they will lack frontcourt strength. Barnes' teams have usually overpowered opponents on the boards. With Hamilton and Thompson leaving for the draft and a lack of size to replace them along with seniors Gary Johnson and Matt Hill, I have a hard time seeing Texas repeating that pattern.

Louisville 15-1: Peyton Siva is a terrific point guard. Kyle Kuric is a pure shooter from the wing. The Cardinals have a strong recruiting class coming in including wide body Chase Behanan- a 6'6" 265lb freshman who has similarities to DeJuan Blair and Jared Sullinger in his ability to carve out space on the boards. But he is a few inches shorter than Sullinger so I would be hesitant to project that type of impact. Louisville also suffered some bad luck when projected starter Rakeem Buckles went down with an ACL injury in March of this year. ACL's usually take 9-12 months to recover fully.

Louisville should be one of the better teams in the Big East. But the 6th best odds to win the national championship? I can't see it. They lose leading scorer Preston Knowles (15ppg). They also lose Terrence Jennings- their top returning big man to the NBA draft. So down low where the wars are won, Louisville has a 6'10 215 lb junior- Gorgui Dieng who averaged 6 pts and 4 rebounds last year. They have a 6'7" 200 lb junior coming off an ACL injury suffered in the Spring. A 6'9" 220 lb junior in Stephan Van Tresse- who was sparingly used last year (3 pts per game). Jared Shopshire- a 6'8" 205 lb forward coming off a redshirt. And Behanan who is a freshman. I've seen national championship frontlines before and that is not one of them.

Honorable mention: Purdue 60-1 (major rebuilding even with Hummel back); Kansas 40-1 (two big time players in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, but not enough pieces around them); Ohio State 7-1 (how could you not love Sullinger- a dominant big man likely to put up Blake Griffin like numbers? But they lose Lighty, Diebler and Lauderdale who accounted for nearly 45% of the minutes. Ohio State has a good recruiting class coming in but no top 25 national types).

Hold:

North Carolina 3-1: This team has stockpiled a ridiculous amount of talent. They are the favorites to win a national championship. Anything short of that will be a disappointment to them. They have a sick frontcourt- Zeller; McAdoo; Henson; Barnes; Hairston. Those five guys will likely play in the NBA. The backcourt is also packed with talent: Strickland, McDonald, Bullock and Kendall Marshall. Marshall had a terrific assists to turnover ratio of almost 3:1. His court vision is superb and he has the finishers to make defenses look silly. They will overpower most teams with their talent. The big question with UNC is will they defend well enough to beat teams that can neutralize their talent?

Kentucky 5-1: seems to be fairly valued. There is a strong correlation between 5-star recruits and national championships. Kentucky has 6 5-star recruits that they will trot out. They caught a break when Terrence Jones decided to return for his sophomore season. They are still young- all of these 5-star players are sophomores and freshmen. Darius Miller is the only upper classman expected to play big minutes. I also wonder how much Kentucky will miss Josh Harrellson? He was a big body that did so many of the valuable things (picks, rebounds, defending the rim) that go unnoticed- like Josh Lomers for Baylor when they made their elite 8 run in 2009-2010. But their talent is enough to make these odds seem reasonable.

Duke 15-1: Duke loses a lot of scoring- Singler, Irving, Smith. They do welcome the top recruit- Austin Rivers. They have great backcourt talent- Curry, Dawkins, Rivers, Cook. They have three Plumlee brothers (Miles, Mason and Marshall) along with Ryan Kelly to anchor the front line. I debated whether Duke should be put in the "buy" category. I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable saying Ohio State has better talent. But they do lose 60% of their scoring. Rivers will replace a lot of that. Will it be enough? Is the front court tough enough to win a national championship?

Honorable mention: Syracuse 15-1: they lose Rick Jackson who led the Big East in rebounding- 10.3. He logged 35 minutes per game. But they return everyone else and they bring in Rakeem Christmas- a long shot blocking center. They should be a solid top 10 team and national contender. Odds seem right on for me.

NBA players going bankrupt

Daniel Bukspan of CNBC had a piece yesterday on pro athletes who made large amounts of money and ended up declaring bankruptcy.

He put together a slide show of 15 athletes on the CNBC website with blurbs on each situation.

In the article, Bukspan mentions that the NBA players association in 2008 claimed that 60% of pro basketball players go broke before they retire. Fortunately, there is a generous pension for players who are in the league longer than 3 years.

According to this article written in 2010, a player will receive a minimum of $57k per year starting at age 62 if they play 3 years in the league. They could $195k per year if they make it to 11 years. But getting to 62 with any money is evidently uncommon for many NBA players.

I have a personal anecdote on this issue. I vacationed with my wife in Fort Lauderdale a few years ago. We went out to an early dinner at Charley's Crabs which is on the Intercoastal Waterway. An enormous yacht pulls up to the restaurant. Scottie Pippen comes out with an entourage- wife, nanny, kids, crew from the yacht. Our waiter made an unsolicited comment that the yacht was close to $50 million in "value". As if that was a good thing...

Immediately my mind started churning (financial planner by trade). I thought Pippen probably made $100 million in salary over his career (actual figure is $109 million according to this site). Perhaps he made another $100 million in endorsements. Still not enough money to afford a $50 million yacht when you consider the spendable money is closer to $100 million after taxes. Still a man earning that amount of money should not get himself into a financial bind. But sure enough Pippen's name is on the CNBC list.

What is the Proverb about sudden money? An inheritance gained quickly in the beginning will not be blessed in the end... NBA players need to look to positive role models in this area like Matt Bonner- who didn't own a car his first few years in the league and lived in a one-bedroom apartment while playing with Toronto. His coach had to get on him for not adhering to the league's dress code (threads weren't nice enough).

Brandon Jennings is another who seems to be making good decisions with money. Knowing a lockout was looming, he bought a Ford Edge while at least one teammate drives a Ferrari. He bought a condo away from the temptations of the "hot" night life district in Milwaukee.

I think the claim that 60% of pro basketball players are broke before age 62 highlights the wisdom of guys like Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones and Harrison Barnes returning to college although they would all have been lottery picks. Maturity and making sound decisions in life are more important than jumping at the first chance to "cash" out. Hopefully advisors to NBA players are warning players that the odds of running out of money without a prudent strategy are high. And hopefully players are listening.

An EmBEARassment of Riches

I've been following Baylor basketball many years. I've never seen anything on paper close to what Scott Drew and staff have assembled for the 2011-2012 season. With the news in the last 48 hours of securing a premier PG- Pierre Jackson- and the surprise announcement that potential lottery pick- Perry Jones- is returning for his sophomore season, Baylor has to be considered a favorite to win the big 12 and make a strong run at a national title.

The talent that has been assembled on this squad looks more like a Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke team. The versatility is amazing.

Breaking down the roster and strengths and weaknesses:

PG- Pierre Jackson (junior)- 5'9" 180lbs.

1st team JUCO All-American at College of Southern Idaho. Pierre is a baller. My definition of a baller is someone that makes everyone better. I got tipped off that Baylor was looking at some juco PGs at the national championships in Kansas. I watched games on webcasts with a bias towards preferring one kid who had nearly a 4:1 assist to turnover ratio over Pierre. After watching the games, there was no doubt in my mind that if you wanted a PG, Pierre was the one you wanted to get.

He's fast and able to play through contact. He exhibits a great feel for the game- high basketball IQ. One of my favorite plays occurred in the championship game against Midland. Pierre misses a jumper. The long rebound is thrown ahead for an easy Midland fast break. Instead of sulking, Pierre hustles down court and knocks the ball out as the Midland player goes into his shooting motion. I love it when players care about every possession and do everything possible to make it difficult on an opponent...

I thought he played a little too fast for his bigs- meaning with more athletic bigs his passes would be caught and dunked instead of fumbled. He attempted 58 free throws in the 4 games I watched. And he shoots free throws at 87%. He has the will to win- and he led his team to a championship. College of Southern Idaho played him off the ball because they had Darius Smith- former UCONN signee at PG. But Pierre is a true PG. His style of play reminds me of Devan Downey for South Carolina. Baylor fans are familiar with Downey because he destroyed Baylor- although the Bears were fortunate to take 2 of 3 from South Carolina while playing them head to head. Pierre has more vertical bounce than Devan and perhaps not quite as strong, but similar skill set and height. Pierre's a difference maker. He will be a force in the big 12.

Strengths: on the ball defense; decision making; shooting; toughness; passing
Needs to work on: shot selection; strength; stamina
Player comparison: Devan Downey- 1st team all SEC at South Carolina
Stats (juco): 19 ppg; 5 assists; 4 reb; 2 steals; 87% FT

PG- AJ Walton (junior)- 6'1" 185lbs

There are some Baylor fans down on AJ Walton for his play last season. I'm not one of them. AJ was put in a tough spot this past season for Baylor. Baylor had poor backcourt depth. And a star SG- Lace Dunn- who was not a good ball handler. The forwards that they had were not particularly good ballhandlers either. AJ was an effective back-up for Tweety Carter- the PG who led Baylor to an elite 8 run in 2009-2010. AJ came into the past season with high expectations. He was faster and stronger than Tweety. But experience matters. Things just never jelled in the Baylor backcourt. Dunn struggled with his shot. AJ struggled with turnovers. And the back-ups never produced for Baylor.

This year should be a new lease on life for Walton. Walton will be relieved of every possession ball-handling duties with Jackson, Brady Heslip and Gary Franklin joining the mix. One thing is certain, Walton is one of the premier defenders in the big 12. He is a ball-hawk. He led the big 12 in steals at 2.27 per game. I fully expect him to catch Mario Chalmers and leave Baylor as the all-time big 12 steals leader. He's a gym rat. He's a winner. I think those who have written off AJ Walton will regret the thought. I expect him to be a huge part of Baylor's success next year.

Strengths: toughness; defense; attitude; strength; quickness
Needs to work on: ball-handling; passing; outside shooting; decision making; free throws
Player comparison: J.T. Tiller Missouri- tenacious defender (AJ is a better shooter)
Stats: 8 pts; 5 assts; 3 turnovers; 3 reb; 2 steals

PG: Stargell Love (soph)- 6'3" 175lbs

Stargell is an exciting player that would likely flourish in an uptempo game. He has the tools to be an outstanding defender but was out of position a lot last year- typical for a freshman. He's quick. His first step is outstanding. He has good court vision. He had some flashes last year- on the road against Texas Tech and Kansas State come to mind. If Baylor decided to play 5 guards- something I see as unlikely due to their frontcourt depth, I think a style of play that sped up the game (full court pressing defense) would make sense. Stargell would be a valuable piece in that type of role. He struggled in the half-court game because he doesn't shoot well from the outside.

Strengths: court vision; speed; athleticism; confidence
Needs to work on: defensive position; decision making; shooting; strength
Stats: limited time but shooting numbers were woeful- 36% from field; 21% from 3 pt.

SG- Brady Heslip (soph)- 6'2" 180lbs

Brady is a transfer from Boston College. I have never seen him in a game situation. I have seen him practice and in scrimmage situations. First of all, he has improved his strength tremendously since arriving at Baylor. He was around 200 lbs and a little pudgy when he arrived at Baylor. Charlie Melton- Baylor's strength coach- tells the story that Brady could only do a couple of pull-ups when he arrived at Baylor. A few months later, he was knocking out 25-30 with very short rest in between.

Brady is a catch and shoot guy. His form is pure. His release is quick. His range- deep. He has the potential to be Baylor's best zone buster. He comes from a basketball family- dad played professionally; uncle Jay is the coach for the Toronto Raptors. The basketball IQ and instincts are a strength.

When I look at Baylor's roster, I see some similarities between the 2011-2012 team (on paper) and the Florida Gator team that won the national championship back to back. That Florida team had a tremendous passion for winning (led by Joakim Noah's hustle every second mentality). It remains to be seen if Baylor develops that kind of mental toughness. But Brady Heslip reminds me of Lee Humphrey from that Florida team. Lee averaged over 10 pts per game and shot almost 50% from 3 pt range. Those looks were often open because Florida had so many other weapons to worry about. Humphrey was only 69% from the free throw line and I would expect much better results from Heslip in that department.

One observer said about Heslip after watching him practice a dozen times: "He's the most competitive player and the best shooter Scott Drew has ever signed." That is high praise. There have been some competitors: Aaron Bruce, Tweety Carter, Curtis Jerrells, Quincy Acy, Ekpe Udoh, Josh Lomers, Lace Dunn and AJ Walton to name a few.

Strengths: shooting; decision making; basketball IQ; passing; competitiveness
Needs to work on: defense; strength; endurance
Player comparison: Lee Humphrey- Florida
Stats: has yet to play a division one game due to transfer from Boston College

SG: Gary Franklin (soph)- 6'2" 195lbs

Gary is a hard-nosed physical guard from California who can score. I watched a few of his games at California (Berkeley) where he averaged 25 minutes per game and 8 pts. Gary was the best outside threat for California and therefore drew a lot of defensive attention on the perimeter. Like most freshmen, he struggled to get his "sea legs" early in the season and his shooting numbers reflected that- 30% from the field and 3 pt range. His shot seems to have a little bit of a hitch in it, but he has a quick release. He has the potential to be a terrific college guard because he has above average basketball IQ; a body that can take and dish out punishment and a scorer's mentality.

What bears watching is how Baylor uses Gary once he returns from sitting out the 1st semester due to transferring. Stories circulated that Gary transferred from Cal even though he was playing 25 minutes per game as a freshman because he wanted to play the point. The label he's had is that he is not a true point- not fast enough to penetrate at will. And his passing/court vision while good is not exceptional. Drew prefers to run the dribble drive motion offense. The personnel the last two years have not been conducive to that. But I would guess that with the influx of guard talent, Baylor will gravitate towards that system as they did with Jerrells, Carter, Bruce, Dugat and Dunn in the backcourt. They played three guards regularly and often played four guards. Baylor's frontcourt is too good to do that going forward, but they might play three guards at times. I don't know how Baylor is going to use Franklin, but my guess is that he is too talented to keep off the court.

Strengths: confidence; scoring; strength; intelligence
Needs to work on: shooting accuracy; defensive effort; shot selection; patience in developing
Player comparison: Nolan Smith- Duke
Stats (Cal): 8 pts; 2 assists; 1 reb; 1 steal

SG: Deuce Bello (freshman)- 6'4" 175lbs

Deuce is perhaps the most athletic player in the 2011 recruiting class. He's a YouTube sensation for his ability to dunk in many different situations. I have only seen him play in all-star games and read reports on his play. I'm excited to see him play in person.

Strengths: freakish length; quickness; winning (state champ); leaping ability; confidence
Needs to work on: physical strength; outside shooting/mechanics; defensive intensity
Player comparison: David "Skywalker" Thompson- comparison athletically.

SF: Anthony Jones (senior)- 6'10" 190lbs

Anthony has improved each year. He has started to develop consistency in terms of production. An extremely polite and good natured kid- he needs to develop into a tougher player (same can be said for all Baylor big guys outside of Quincy Acy). He has pro potential if he can improve his intensity level. Can be a menacing defender with his length. His shooting improved dramatically throughout the year. He ended up shooting 52% from the field and 40% from from 3 pt range. Went from 64% on free throws to 82%.

Strengths: smooth game; outside shooting; free throw shooting; defensive rebounding; length
Needs to work: passing; intensity; strength; shot release- needs a set shot/ delivery too long
Player comparison: Tayshaun Prince
Stats: 9 pts; 5 reb; 1 asst

SF: Quincy Miller (freshman) 6'10" 210lbs

Quincy Miller is oozing with potential and has the personality to complement the game. He's a talker and has already developed a reputation for showmanship. "It's easy" and "I get buckets" are some of his catch phrases during games. He has consistently been rated a top 10 player in his class. NBA mock drafts have him rated a lottery pick when he decides to play pro basketball.

I watched him in some all star games last year and also the FIBA U-18 championships in San Antonio. What impressed me most in that game was his desire to want the ball and deliver in the clutch. He came up big against Brazil at crunch time. The US team had Austin Rivers and Kyrie Irving (Duke); Vander Blue (Marquette) and many other top high school players. But the ball seemed to have a magnet towards Quincy when the game was on the line. This demonstrated a mental toughness/ will to win that you like to see in potential great players. Miller has "it". I remember watching Kevin Durant in high school and thinking, Kevin has "it". Miller did tear his ACL early in his senior season. He should be at full speed in June and ready to go when the season starts for Baylor in November.

Strengths: basketball IQ; competitiveness; motor; passion for the game; quickness; overall skill
Weaknesses: strength; defensive intensity; shooting release is low (although he shoots well)
Player comparison: Kevin Durant

SF- Fred Ellis (senior) 6'6" 215 lbs

Fred has graduated and is working on a master's degree. He has been primarily a role player for Baylor but he's shown signs of improvement in terms of confidence and court awareness. He's a very good interior passer. He also rebounds well and shoots free throws at 78%. He's a typical glue guy.

Strengths: interior passing; rebounding; court awareness
Needs to work on: shooting; being an energy guy effort wise

PF- Quincy Acy (senior) 6'7" 225 lbs

Quincy is one of the most exciting players in college basketball. His motor runs hot all the time. He plays the game with intensity. He's got freakish wingspan for his size- 7'2". He gives all out effort. He has improved his outside game some and he is generally a reliable free throw shooter in the clutch.

Although a senior this year, he's young. He's 20 years old. He's a great pick and roll guy and offensive rebounder. He excelled with Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter feeding him- shot 70% from the field as a sophomore. Those numbers dropped with Baylor's dysfunctional half-court offense this year. But I would expect his overall impact on the game to increase as he has better guard play around him this year. He plays like his hair is on fire which is mostly a strength but he needs to realize that he has the athleticism/strength to rise above almost any college player and knock down mid range jumpers.

Strengths: intensity; effort; rebounding; attacks rim; plays with a chip; shot blocking
Needs to work on: setting better picks; not leaving his feet on shot attempts; shooting- flow
Player comparison: Kenyon Martin
Stats: 12 pts; 8 reb; 1.5 blocks; 1 steal

PF- Cory Jefferson (sophomore)- 6'9" 220lbs

Cory has seen very little game action. He redshirted last year to gain strength. He entered Baylor at 180lbs and is now up to 220lbs. I hope he is patient about playing time. Minutes are going to be hard to earn this year but his last two years, I expect him to be a 30 minute plus per game guy. He is defensive minded and smart. He is an outstanding offensive rebounder and has the opportunity to be a premier shot blocker. I wouldn't be surprised to see him anchoring Baylor's middle if Baylor continues to play zone defense.

He was voted the best dunker on the team 2 years ago and that team included Quincy Acy. He has a bright future.

Strengths: work ethic; defense; shot blocking; rebounding; mid range jumper
Needs to work on: strength; confidence; ball handling

C- Perry Jones (sophomore) 6'11" 240lbs

Perry is an athletic freak. He shocked the Baylor Nation by deciding to come back for another year of school. He was projected to be picked in the top 10 of the NBA draft as a freshman. But he and his parents wanted to delay gratification and spend another year in college.

Perry does many great things on the basketball court. He's unselfish. He's elite in terms of speed; jumping and strength for his age. He passes the ball well. He needs help in many of the finer points of the game- setting picks; not allowing players to get good position; the will to win; aggressiveness. But of course many freshmen struggle with these things. Fans like myself hold Perry to another standard due to his great athletic gifts.

Strengths: Elite athleticism; great shooting form; rebounding; humility
Needs to work on: motor; basketball instincts; competitiveness
Player comparison: Kevin Garnett
Stats: 14 pts; 7 rebounds; 1 block

C- Bobo Morgan (senior) 6'11" 265 lbs

Bobo transferred to Baylor from UCLA. There were signs of good things near the end of the season. He has a decent low post game. He blocks shots well. He needs to improve on facets of the game however. If he does, he can be a valuable piece for the Bears.

Strengths: wingspan/length; strength/size; low post game; shot blocking
Needs to work on: defensive positioning; toughness; setting picks well; will to win

C- Dragan Sekelja (junior) 7'0" 265lbs

Dragan has played only limited minutes. He came to Baylor from Croatia. In his limited minutes, he has seemed to struggle with the speed of the game. He has good fundamentals in the post. He has the potential to be a more fleet footed Lomers. But it is hard to know if he stays around with so many players ahead of him on the depth chart.

Strengths: size; post moves; shooting
Needs to work on: toughness; endurance; strength

There are 14 players listed and only 13 scholarships so obviously one guy will drop due to a transfer; becoming a voluntary walk-on or grade issues.

The questions I have for the Bears:

1. Will they develop the will to win? This was sorely missing from last year's team. Just too many nights where the desire to get the job done seemed to be lacking.

2. Will they exploit weaknesses in other teams? This roster is full of Final 4 potential. Will they attack others with less talent? They have so much versatility that they can pounce on weaknesses when they see them.

3. Will they be able to keep a happy locker room? It seems like the character of the kids is good. Will the team sell out to winning? Putting the interests of self beneath the interests of the team? Sky is the limit if they do.

As Bill Simmons highlighted in his Book of Basketball, the secret to basketball is that it is not about basketball. Chemistry, character and the will to win are vital to winning a championship.

Baylor's talent is extreme. Looking at Rivals rankings of these players out of high school:

Quincy Miller- 5th rated player in 2011
Perry Jones- 9th rated player in 2010
Bobo Morgan- 25th rated player in 2008
Deuce Bello- 43rd rated player in 2011
Anthony Jones- 44th rated player in 2008
Cory Jefferson- 51st rated player in 2009
Gary Franklin- 78th rated player in 2010
Quincy Acy- 84th rated player in 2008

Any time you can stack 8 guys in one year rated in the top 100 and also fill in with some great talent, you have the potential for something special:

Pierre Jackson- 1st team JUCO all-american; JUCO national championship MVP
AJ Walton- defensive specialist (138 nationally in 2009)
Brady Heslip- outside shooting specialist
Fred Ellis- senior glue guy
Stargell Love- athletic guard (149 in 2010)
Dragan Sekelja- big man

Good article in NY Times calling out NCAA for double standard- Perry Jones III

Proverbs 20:10 reads, "Unequal weights and measures are both alike an abomination to the Lord."

There is a good opinion piece in the New York Times discussing the unequal treatments of Perry Jones III- a talented basketball player at Baylor University and Jim Calhoun- a highly successful coach at national champion UCONN.

I was fortunate enough to spend some time around Jones earlier this year. I was invited by Baylor to go on a trip with the basketball team to Lubbock, Texas to watch them play Texas Tech.

Hard to imagine a more humble kid than Jones. He along with the other freshman players grabbed my bags as they came off the plane and loaded them onto the team bus- something that made me feel very uncomfortable but it is a rite of passage with the Baylor basketball team. Freshmen have to pay their dues by doing things like this on the road. And they are expected to show gratitude to the guests that travel with them by little gestures like this.

I was having a hard time imagining a Duke or North Carolina player having to carry other peoples' bags. There was something refreshing about it. No sense of prima donna in Perry. Here was a kid that will soon have agents and NBA personnel catering to his every whim and he's doing something without any aura of entitlement.

Perry seemed to love the camaraderie with his teammates and coaches. He's one of those guys that is light-hearted and keeps the conversation from being serious. During dinner, calamari came out as an appetizer and a couple of the players had never tried it before. I urged Perry to give it a try. He did but clearly not his thing. We had a discussion about who the best point guard in the NBA was and rap music. I came away thinking, "This is just a kid. Hasn't even tried calamari."

Two months later the NCAA is handing down a ridiculous punishment considering the alleged offense- his mom borrowed money to pay the rent and Perry accepted an invitation to watch a Dallas Cowboys' preseason game. For this the NCAA suspended him six games including just hours before the Big 12 tournament game against Oklahoma.

Now he's grappling with the decision of whether to go pro before he's probably mentally and emotionally ready as a true freshman. If he decides to turn pro, he will likely be one of the top 10 picks in the NBA draft due to his freakish athletic potential. Innocence lost and the NCAA has its part in that.

Here's the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/09/opinion/09nocera.html

Jason King from Yahoo Sports had written similar thoughts a month earlier:

If Perry shocks the Baylor nation and decides to come back next year, a strong case can be made for Baylor to make a title run:

They have stockpiled a lot of talent in the frontcourt. All of these players were rated in the top 50 in the nation at some point during their high school years:

6'11" 265 Senior Bobo Morgan (3 pts; 2 reb; 1 block)
6'11" 235 Soph Perry Jones (top 10 national player- 14pts; 7 reb; 1 block)
6'10" 190 Senior Anthony Jones (9 pts; 5 reb; 52% FG; 82% FT)
6'9" 220 Soph Cory Jefferson (redshirted)
6'9" 210 Freshman Quincy Miller (top 10 national player)
6'5" 180 Freshman Deuce Bello

what is scary about that frontcourt talent is that it doesn't include perhaps Baylor's best frontcourt player: 6'7" 225 lb senior Quincy Acy who averaged 12 pts and 8 rebounds and 2 blocks. Acy brings an aggressiveness to the position that the others don't have.

Fred Ellis is another senior- 3pts/ 2 reb. The questions for Baylor are in the backcourt. They lose their top scorer- Lace Dunn. Dunn averaged 20 ppg, but shot a career low 40% from the field and averaged almost 4 turnovers per game.

AJ Walton (PG) led the big 12 in steals at 2.3 per game. AJ struggled with the primary ball-handling responsibilities. He did average 5 assists and 8 pts but turned it over 3 times per game. He also shot only 63% from the foul line.

Walton should have plenty of help this year. Hopefully, Baylor lands JUCO all-American Pierre Jackson from the College of Southern Idaho. Jackson is visiting Baylor this weekend. He's a 5'9" freakishly athletic PG who can get to the hoop with his speed/strength and also makes good decisions in distribution. Jackson also visited Creighton and is being heavily recruited by them and other teams in need of guard help. But it looks like Creighton and Baylor have the inside track here.

Baylor also has Stargell Love an athletic guard who was injured a bunch as a freshman. And two impact transfers in Brady Heslip- Boston College. Brady is a tremendous shooter. Gary Franklin is the other transfer- from Cal. Franklin averaged over 8 pts as a true freshman for Mike Montgomery but parted ways and transferred to Baylor. Franklin is eligible for the 2nd semester of the 2011-2012 season.

With or without Perry Jones, Baylor looks to field a much more balanced team with weapons inside and out. It is a shame that Perry's freshman season ended in such disappointment. It would be great to see him enjoy college basketball by making a deep postseason run instead of becoming the target of the NCAA's unequally-weighted policies.

Constructing a College Team Without Top Recruits

I love college basketball. I follow high school recruiting closely. I think the guys that evaluate talent for a living do an excellent job- Jerry Meyer and Eric Bossi at Rivals. Dave Telep, Evan Daniels, Gary Parrish and others...

But there are always misses that end up being All-American type players. So I decided to look at how good a team I could construct only with guys that didn't make the Rivals top 100 list.

I'd take my chances with this bunch. It is debatable whether this team would win a national championship with a spare like me coaching, but the basketball IQ of this group would offset a ton of coaching deficiencies that I would bring to the table.

PG: Jordan Taylor 6'1" 195lbs- Wisconsin. He was rated #124 in the 2008 class. Tough physical guard that shoots 42% from 3 and 83% from the foul line. He averaged 18 pts for Wisconsin (a low scoring team). What is most impressive about him is that he had almost a 5:1 assist to turnover ratio.

SG: Jimmer Fredette 6'2" 195lbs- BYU. Not rated in the 2007 class. He scores in a variety of ways. 45% from the field and 89% from the free throw line. Nearly a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. Averaged 29 pts per game.

SF: Jimmy Butler 6'7" 220lbs- Marquette. Not rated in the 2007 class. Exudes mental toughness. Good defender. Not a great outside shooter but serviceable. Averaged 16 pts and 6 rebounds. 78% from the free throw line.

PF: Derrick Williams 6'8" 241lbs- Arizona. Not rated in the 2009 class. An absolute beast. 20 pts per game; 8 rebounds; 60% from the field; 75% free throws. 57% from 3 points (42-74). A nightmare cover- if you try to take the 3 away you are likely to get posterized on a drive.

C: Kenneth Faried 6'8" 225lbs- Morehead State. Not rated in the 2007 class. Another beast. Tenacious rebounder- second jump is incredibly quick. Averaged 17 pts and 14.5 rebounds. Doesn't shoot free throws well- 57% but does shoot 62% from the field. High energy player- 2 steals and 2.3 blocks per game.

There were many players I was disappointed to see they had just made the Rivals top 100 cut- Jordan Williams from Maryland; Matt Howard from Butler; Brad Wanamaker from Pitt and Quincy Acy from Baylor are all guys I would love to have on this team. But all four were in the top 100 Rivals lists for their senior years of high school.

Bench: I'm going with an 8-man rotation. I want a scorer off the bench who can give instant offense. This was my hardest decision. I've been a huge admirer of Jacob Pullen. Probably should put him on this list. But his shot selection is suspect at times. And I've had a man crush on Andrew Goudelock from the College of Charleston. So he gets the nod.

Guard: Andrew Goudelock 6'2" 200 lbs from College of Charleston- not rated in 2007. He averaged 24 pts per game; 41% from 3; 46% from the field and 83% from the free throw line. And I doubt any player in the country faced more box and ones than Goudelock. He scored 28 pts in a close loss at UNC. And 31 points at Tennessee in a 91-78 victory.

Guard: Ben Hansbrough 6'4" 206 lbs from Notre Dame. Unranked in the 2006 class. Like his brother Tyler just has a will to win. 18 pts; 4 rebounds; 2:1 assists to turnovers; 82% free throws; he gets to the line; hard nosed defender.

Forward: Keith Benson 6'11" 230lbs from Oakland University. Unranked in 2007. I struggled between him and Ezeil from Vandy. Gave the nod to Benson. He averaged 18 pts; 10 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. He's a grinder. Very active player who can give this team defense off the bench.

So that is my squad. Give me a month of practice and I would be happy to go to war against Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State, Duke and other schools filled with top 100 national recruits.

One And Done- When Should a Player Go Pro?

I love hoops. Admittedly I'm a huge Baylor basketball fan. It was a tough year to be a fan. High expectations to start the season. The team was plagued by turnovers; sloppy play and just never hit its groove. Just a year ago, I was traveling all over the country to follow Baylor as they made it to the elite 8 where they lost in a terrific game against Duke (the eventual national champs).

One of the reasons for optimism heading into the 2010-2011 season was an athletic freak named Perry Jones. Perry Jones is 6'11" 235 lbs and has athletic skill that is extraordinary. He runs like a deer. His leaping ability is elite. He has a silky smooth jumper. But he is raw. He still struggles in many of the fundamental aspects of the game. Young and still learning.

Pro scouts are drooling over his potential. But many believe that he could use another year in college to hone his skills. But if he does decide to declare for the NBA draft after his freshman season (where he averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds), he will likely be drafted in the lottery (the first 14 picks in the 1st round) based on his potential.

The NY Times ran a good story on Perry earlier this month.

The question I will explore in this blog is should a player like Perry Jones go pro after his freshman year? Most basketball fans say, "Yes, take the money. You can always go back to school." But is this a wise financial decision?

The first 14 picks in the NBA draft have a rookie salary scale. This scale determines how much salary they will earn in the first 3 years of their NBA career. Those salaries range from an average per year of $4,752,000 for the top pick to $1,681,067 for the 14th pick in the draft.

After taking care of family members, agents (5%) and the government (45%), the player is often left with not so much to show for that first contract. The key to a successful NBA career from a financial perspective is getting the big 2nd contract and cashing in on endorsement deals.

Kevin Durant is a great example of this. He was clearly ready to go pro after dominating college basketball his freshman year at the University of Texas. He averaged 26 points; 11 rebounds; 2 blocks; 2 steals and was college basketball's player of the year. He has been an all-star in the NBA and recently signed a contract extension for $86 million for 5 years. He also reportedly signed a 7-year $60 million endorsement deal with Nike. In hindsight, his decision to go pro was a no-brainer.

There have been other forwards that we can compare Perry Jones to athletically that have also seemed to cash in well on going pro after one year in college. From 2003-2008 One and Dones (Forwards only) have produced Star NBA players- Carmelo Anthony; Chris Bosh; Luol Deng and Kevin Love. Solid NBA players- Thaddeus Young; Michael Beasley; Marvin Williams; and Tyrus Thomas. But also some guys that I would consider disappointments from the perspective that they weren't productive enough to get large 2nd contracts. Anthony Randolph; Brandan Wright and Kris Humphries. In each of those cases, those players would have probably been well served to stay in college longer.

The financial risk is not so great if a player stays in school from an injury standpoint. NCAA athletes are covered by a disability insurance program that allows them to take out loans to pay premiums at low interest rates. This coverage would pay up to $5 million in case of injury that prevents the athlete from getting drafted where he was projected before the injury. Loans while in college that help produce revenue for the NCAA are okay. But if a family friend gives your mom a loan to help pay the mortgage while you are an amateur, you will incur the wrath of the NCAA. But I digress.

There are plenty of college players who decided to come back another year and have used that extra honing of skill/experience to catapult them into NBA stardom and riches. Three come to mind without doing too much research- Blake Griffin; Lamarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay.

The big decision for Perry and his family to make in weighing the decision is: Is he ready for the NBA physically and emotionally? Would another year of college improve his draft stock? Would it help him secure larger endorsement deals if Baylor were to make a deep NCAA run next year?

On the surface, it seems like the wise decision is to take the guaranteed money. But in reality:

1. The first contract is not that lucrative after taxes and agent fees.
2. The key to financial security in the NBA is the 2nd and 3rd contracts and also lucrative endorsement deals.

Would the player set himself up for a better chance of #2 if he stayed or went? That is the key question in my mind.

Ashley Hodge