An EmBEARassment of Riches

I've been following Baylor basketball many years. I've never seen anything on paper close to what Scott Drew and staff have assembled for the 2011-2012 season. With the news in the last 48 hours of securing a premier PG- Pierre Jackson- and the surprise announcement that potential lottery pick- Perry Jones- is returning for his sophomore season, Baylor has to be considered a favorite to win the big 12 and make a strong run at a national title.

The talent that has been assembled on this squad looks more like a Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke team. The versatility is amazing.

Breaking down the roster and strengths and weaknesses:

PG- Pierre Jackson (junior)- 5'9" 180lbs.

1st team JUCO All-American at College of Southern Idaho. Pierre is a baller. My definition of a baller is someone that makes everyone better. I got tipped off that Baylor was looking at some juco PGs at the national championships in Kansas. I watched games on webcasts with a bias towards preferring one kid who had nearly a 4:1 assist to turnover ratio over Pierre. After watching the games, there was no doubt in my mind that if you wanted a PG, Pierre was the one you wanted to get.

He's fast and able to play through contact. He exhibits a great feel for the game- high basketball IQ. One of my favorite plays occurred in the championship game against Midland. Pierre misses a jumper. The long rebound is thrown ahead for an easy Midland fast break. Instead of sulking, Pierre hustles down court and knocks the ball out as the Midland player goes into his shooting motion. I love it when players care about every possession and do everything possible to make it difficult on an opponent...

I thought he played a little too fast for his bigs- meaning with more athletic bigs his passes would be caught and dunked instead of fumbled. He attempted 58 free throws in the 4 games I watched. And he shoots free throws at 87%. He has the will to win- and he led his team to a championship. College of Southern Idaho played him off the ball because they had Darius Smith- former UCONN signee at PG. But Pierre is a true PG. His style of play reminds me of Devan Downey for South Carolina. Baylor fans are familiar with Downey because he destroyed Baylor- although the Bears were fortunate to take 2 of 3 from South Carolina while playing them head to head. Pierre has more vertical bounce than Devan and perhaps not quite as strong, but similar skill set and height. Pierre's a difference maker. He will be a force in the big 12.

Strengths: on the ball defense; decision making; shooting; toughness; passing
Needs to work on: shot selection; strength; stamina
Player comparison: Devan Downey- 1st team all SEC at South Carolina
Stats (juco): 19 ppg; 5 assists; 4 reb; 2 steals; 87% FT

PG- AJ Walton (junior)- 6'1" 185lbs

There are some Baylor fans down on AJ Walton for his play last season. I'm not one of them. AJ was put in a tough spot this past season for Baylor. Baylor had poor backcourt depth. And a star SG- Lace Dunn- who was not a good ball handler. The forwards that they had were not particularly good ballhandlers either. AJ was an effective back-up for Tweety Carter- the PG who led Baylor to an elite 8 run in 2009-2010. AJ came into the past season with high expectations. He was faster and stronger than Tweety. But experience matters. Things just never jelled in the Baylor backcourt. Dunn struggled with his shot. AJ struggled with turnovers. And the back-ups never produced for Baylor.

This year should be a new lease on life for Walton. Walton will be relieved of every possession ball-handling duties with Jackson, Brady Heslip and Gary Franklin joining the mix. One thing is certain, Walton is one of the premier defenders in the big 12. He is a ball-hawk. He led the big 12 in steals at 2.27 per game. I fully expect him to catch Mario Chalmers and leave Baylor as the all-time big 12 steals leader. He's a gym rat. He's a winner. I think those who have written off AJ Walton will regret the thought. I expect him to be a huge part of Baylor's success next year.

Strengths: toughness; defense; attitude; strength; quickness
Needs to work on: ball-handling; passing; outside shooting; decision making; free throws
Player comparison: J.T. Tiller Missouri- tenacious defender (AJ is a better shooter)
Stats: 8 pts; 5 assts; 3 turnovers; 3 reb; 2 steals

PG: Stargell Love (soph)- 6'3" 175lbs

Stargell is an exciting player that would likely flourish in an uptempo game. He has the tools to be an outstanding defender but was out of position a lot last year- typical for a freshman. He's quick. His first step is outstanding. He has good court vision. He had some flashes last year- on the road against Texas Tech and Kansas State come to mind. If Baylor decided to play 5 guards- something I see as unlikely due to their frontcourt depth, I think a style of play that sped up the game (full court pressing defense) would make sense. Stargell would be a valuable piece in that type of role. He struggled in the half-court game because he doesn't shoot well from the outside.

Strengths: court vision; speed; athleticism; confidence
Needs to work on: defensive position; decision making; shooting; strength
Stats: limited time but shooting numbers were woeful- 36% from field; 21% from 3 pt.

SG- Brady Heslip (soph)- 6'2" 180lbs

Brady is a transfer from Boston College. I have never seen him in a game situation. I have seen him practice and in scrimmage situations. First of all, he has improved his strength tremendously since arriving at Baylor. He was around 200 lbs and a little pudgy when he arrived at Baylor. Charlie Melton- Baylor's strength coach- tells the story that Brady could only do a couple of pull-ups when he arrived at Baylor. A few months later, he was knocking out 25-30 with very short rest in between.

Brady is a catch and shoot guy. His form is pure. His release is quick. His range- deep. He has the potential to be Baylor's best zone buster. He comes from a basketball family- dad played professionally; uncle Jay is the coach for the Toronto Raptors. The basketball IQ and instincts are a strength.

When I look at Baylor's roster, I see some similarities between the 2011-2012 team (on paper) and the Florida Gator team that won the national championship back to back. That Florida team had a tremendous passion for winning (led by Joakim Noah's hustle every second mentality). It remains to be seen if Baylor develops that kind of mental toughness. But Brady Heslip reminds me of Lee Humphrey from that Florida team. Lee averaged over 10 pts per game and shot almost 50% from 3 pt range. Those looks were often open because Florida had so many other weapons to worry about. Humphrey was only 69% from the free throw line and I would expect much better results from Heslip in that department.

One observer said about Heslip after watching him practice a dozen times: "He's the most competitive player and the best shooter Scott Drew has ever signed." That is high praise. There have been some competitors: Aaron Bruce, Tweety Carter, Curtis Jerrells, Quincy Acy, Ekpe Udoh, Josh Lomers, Lace Dunn and AJ Walton to name a few.

Strengths: shooting; decision making; basketball IQ; passing; competitiveness
Needs to work on: defense; strength; endurance
Player comparison: Lee Humphrey- Florida
Stats: has yet to play a division one game due to transfer from Boston College

SG: Gary Franklin (soph)- 6'2" 195lbs

Gary is a hard-nosed physical guard from California who can score. I watched a few of his games at California (Berkeley) where he averaged 25 minutes per game and 8 pts. Gary was the best outside threat for California and therefore drew a lot of defensive attention on the perimeter. Like most freshmen, he struggled to get his "sea legs" early in the season and his shooting numbers reflected that- 30% from the field and 3 pt range. His shot seems to have a little bit of a hitch in it, but he has a quick release. He has the potential to be a terrific college guard because he has above average basketball IQ; a body that can take and dish out punishment and a scorer's mentality.

What bears watching is how Baylor uses Gary once he returns from sitting out the 1st semester due to transferring. Stories circulated that Gary transferred from Cal even though he was playing 25 minutes per game as a freshman because he wanted to play the point. The label he's had is that he is not a true point- not fast enough to penetrate at will. And his passing/court vision while good is not exceptional. Drew prefers to run the dribble drive motion offense. The personnel the last two years have not been conducive to that. But I would guess that with the influx of guard talent, Baylor will gravitate towards that system as they did with Jerrells, Carter, Bruce, Dugat and Dunn in the backcourt. They played three guards regularly and often played four guards. Baylor's frontcourt is too good to do that going forward, but they might play three guards at times. I don't know how Baylor is going to use Franklin, but my guess is that he is too talented to keep off the court.

Strengths: confidence; scoring; strength; intelligence
Needs to work on: shooting accuracy; defensive effort; shot selection; patience in developing
Player comparison: Nolan Smith- Duke
Stats (Cal): 8 pts; 2 assists; 1 reb; 1 steal

SG: Deuce Bello (freshman)- 6'4" 175lbs

Deuce is perhaps the most athletic player in the 2011 recruiting class. He's a YouTube sensation for his ability to dunk in many different situations. I have only seen him play in all-star games and read reports on his play. I'm excited to see him play in person.

Strengths: freakish length; quickness; winning (state champ); leaping ability; confidence
Needs to work on: physical strength; outside shooting/mechanics; defensive intensity
Player comparison: David "Skywalker" Thompson- comparison athletically.

SF: Anthony Jones (senior)- 6'10" 190lbs

Anthony has improved each year. He has started to develop consistency in terms of production. An extremely polite and good natured kid- he needs to develop into a tougher player (same can be said for all Baylor big guys outside of Quincy Acy). He has pro potential if he can improve his intensity level. Can be a menacing defender with his length. His shooting improved dramatically throughout the year. He ended up shooting 52% from the field and 40% from from 3 pt range. Went from 64% on free throws to 82%.

Strengths: smooth game; outside shooting; free throw shooting; defensive rebounding; length
Needs to work: passing; intensity; strength; shot release- needs a set shot/ delivery too long
Player comparison: Tayshaun Prince
Stats: 9 pts; 5 reb; 1 asst

SF: Quincy Miller (freshman) 6'10" 210lbs

Quincy Miller is oozing with potential and has the personality to complement the game. He's a talker and has already developed a reputation for showmanship. "It's easy" and "I get buckets" are some of his catch phrases during games. He has consistently been rated a top 10 player in his class. NBA mock drafts have him rated a lottery pick when he decides to play pro basketball.

I watched him in some all star games last year and also the FIBA U-18 championships in San Antonio. What impressed me most in that game was his desire to want the ball and deliver in the clutch. He came up big against Brazil at crunch time. The US team had Austin Rivers and Kyrie Irving (Duke); Vander Blue (Marquette) and many other top high school players. But the ball seemed to have a magnet towards Quincy when the game was on the line. This demonstrated a mental toughness/ will to win that you like to see in potential great players. Miller has "it". I remember watching Kevin Durant in high school and thinking, Kevin has "it". Miller did tear his ACL early in his senior season. He should be at full speed in June and ready to go when the season starts for Baylor in November.

Strengths: basketball IQ; competitiveness; motor; passion for the game; quickness; overall skill
Weaknesses: strength; defensive intensity; shooting release is low (although he shoots well)
Player comparison: Kevin Durant

SF- Fred Ellis (senior) 6'6" 215 lbs

Fred has graduated and is working on a master's degree. He has been primarily a role player for Baylor but he's shown signs of improvement in terms of confidence and court awareness. He's a very good interior passer. He also rebounds well and shoots free throws at 78%. He's a typical glue guy.

Strengths: interior passing; rebounding; court awareness
Needs to work on: shooting; being an energy guy effort wise

PF- Quincy Acy (senior) 6'7" 225 lbs

Quincy is one of the most exciting players in college basketball. His motor runs hot all the time. He plays the game with intensity. He's got freakish wingspan for his size- 7'2". He gives all out effort. He has improved his outside game some and he is generally a reliable free throw shooter in the clutch.

Although a senior this year, he's young. He's 20 years old. He's a great pick and roll guy and offensive rebounder. He excelled with Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter feeding him- shot 70% from the field as a sophomore. Those numbers dropped with Baylor's dysfunctional half-court offense this year. But I would expect his overall impact on the game to increase as he has better guard play around him this year. He plays like his hair is on fire which is mostly a strength but he needs to realize that he has the athleticism/strength to rise above almost any college player and knock down mid range jumpers.

Strengths: intensity; effort; rebounding; attacks rim; plays with a chip; shot blocking
Needs to work on: setting better picks; not leaving his feet on shot attempts; shooting- flow
Player comparison: Kenyon Martin
Stats: 12 pts; 8 reb; 1.5 blocks; 1 steal

PF- Cory Jefferson (sophomore)- 6'9" 220lbs

Cory has seen very little game action. He redshirted last year to gain strength. He entered Baylor at 180lbs and is now up to 220lbs. I hope he is patient about playing time. Minutes are going to be hard to earn this year but his last two years, I expect him to be a 30 minute plus per game guy. He is defensive minded and smart. He is an outstanding offensive rebounder and has the opportunity to be a premier shot blocker. I wouldn't be surprised to see him anchoring Baylor's middle if Baylor continues to play zone defense.

He was voted the best dunker on the team 2 years ago and that team included Quincy Acy. He has a bright future.

Strengths: work ethic; defense; shot blocking; rebounding; mid range jumper
Needs to work on: strength; confidence; ball handling

C- Perry Jones (sophomore) 6'11" 240lbs

Perry is an athletic freak. He shocked the Baylor Nation by deciding to come back for another year of school. He was projected to be picked in the top 10 of the NBA draft as a freshman. But he and his parents wanted to delay gratification and spend another year in college.

Perry does many great things on the basketball court. He's unselfish. He's elite in terms of speed; jumping and strength for his age. He passes the ball well. He needs help in many of the finer points of the game- setting picks; not allowing players to get good position; the will to win; aggressiveness. But of course many freshmen struggle with these things. Fans like myself hold Perry to another standard due to his great athletic gifts.

Strengths: Elite athleticism; great shooting form; rebounding; humility
Needs to work on: motor; basketball instincts; competitiveness
Player comparison: Kevin Garnett
Stats: 14 pts; 7 rebounds; 1 block

C- Bobo Morgan (senior) 6'11" 265 lbs

Bobo transferred to Baylor from UCLA. There were signs of good things near the end of the season. He has a decent low post game. He blocks shots well. He needs to improve on facets of the game however. If he does, he can be a valuable piece for the Bears.

Strengths: wingspan/length; strength/size; low post game; shot blocking
Needs to work on: defensive positioning; toughness; setting picks well; will to win

C- Dragan Sekelja (junior) 7'0" 265lbs

Dragan has played only limited minutes. He came to Baylor from Croatia. In his limited minutes, he has seemed to struggle with the speed of the game. He has good fundamentals in the post. He has the potential to be a more fleet footed Lomers. But it is hard to know if he stays around with so many players ahead of him on the depth chart.

Strengths: size; post moves; shooting
Needs to work on: toughness; endurance; strength

There are 14 players listed and only 13 scholarships so obviously one guy will drop due to a transfer; becoming a voluntary walk-on or grade issues.

The questions I have for the Bears:

1. Will they develop the will to win? This was sorely missing from last year's team. Just too many nights where the desire to get the job done seemed to be lacking.

2. Will they exploit weaknesses in other teams? This roster is full of Final 4 potential. Will they attack others with less talent? They have so much versatility that they can pounce on weaknesses when they see them.

3. Will they be able to keep a happy locker room? It seems like the character of the kids is good. Will the team sell out to winning? Putting the interests of self beneath the interests of the team? Sky is the limit if they do.

As Bill Simmons highlighted in his Book of Basketball, the secret to basketball is that it is not about basketball. Chemistry, character and the will to win are vital to winning a championship.

Baylor's talent is extreme. Looking at Rivals rankings of these players out of high school:

Quincy Miller- 5th rated player in 2011
Perry Jones- 9th rated player in 2010
Bobo Morgan- 25th rated player in 2008
Deuce Bello- 43rd rated player in 2011
Anthony Jones- 44th rated player in 2008
Cory Jefferson- 51st rated player in 2009
Gary Franklin- 78th rated player in 2010
Quincy Acy- 84th rated player in 2008

Any time you can stack 8 guys in one year rated in the top 100 and also fill in with some great talent, you have the potential for something special:

Pierre Jackson- 1st team JUCO all-american; JUCO national championship MVP
AJ Walton- defensive specialist (138 nationally in 2009)
Brady Heslip- outside shooting specialist
Fred Ellis- senior glue guy
Stargell Love- athletic guard (149 in 2010)
Dragan Sekelja- big man