Buy, Sell or Hold? NCAA champion in 2011-2012

The odds are out for the national championship in 2011-2012. I always find it interesting to see who the favorites are pre-season and then compare it to the actual results in April 2012.

By no means am I condoning wagering on these odds. I consider gambling on sports to be investing for people who are bad at math.

Regardless, odds are usually set based on overrating last year's performance and also taking guesses on how well transfers and incoming freshmen will perform.

Here is where I see the value for 2011-2012. These are the characteristics I value for a legitimate shot at a national championship:

Veteran backcourt leadership- players that can control tempo; value the basketball in tight games and know when and where to get their teammates touches.

Strong rebounding team- hard to find a national champion that didn't control the glass.

Defensive field goal percentage under 40%- this is a must. John Wooden often said defensive field goal percentage is the most important stat in a game.

Go-to scorer- to win the NCAA tourney, you need at least one guy that wants the ball and can deliver in the clutch. And that player usually must force his way to the hoop. That was the big difference in Dirk Nowitzski this year versus years' past. In the past, the game was on the line and he shot fadeaways. This year, he took the ball to the rim and got layups or foul shots.

A list of odds can be found on this website:

Buy:

UConn 30-1: Lost Kemba Walker. That is a huge void to fill. He was a top 5 player. But he also shot only 43% from the field and 33% from 3. Defense won that team a lot of games. The defending national champs return most of their key players minus Walker and Okwandu (C).

Lamb, Oriakhi, Smith, Napier and others return. They also signed two impact freshmen in Ryan Boatright (G) and Deandre Daniels (F). Daniels was a late surprise to UConn after most believed he would go to Kansas or Texas. Younger backcourt- but experienced. Napier and Lamb should be considered upper classmen in the swag they bring- lots of big game experience.

Baylor 50-1: Homer pick on my part. But this is one extremely talented team with a lot of experience. The frontcourt is probably the deepest and longest in the country. Perry Jones 6'11" 240lbs; Bobo Morgan 6'11" 240 lbs; Anthony Jones 6'11" 200lbs; Quincy Miller 6'10" 215lbs; Cory Jefferson 6'9" 220lbs. All six of those guys were national top 50 type recruits. And you throw in Quincy Acy at 6'7" 230lbs and you have one potentially nightmarish frontcourt for opponents to deal with.

Baylor's season will hinge on its backcourt. There is experience and skill there. JUCO player of the year- Pierre Jackson; returning starter/big 12 steals leader- AJ Walton; Gary Franklin- starter at Cal will be eligible 2nd semester; and the coaches have been raving about Brady Heslip's- transfer from Boston College- ability to shoot and basketball IQ. Throw in athletic freak Deuce Bello- a top 50 recruit. If 3 of those guards pan out well, Baylor will be a team capable of winning it all.

Vanderbilt 100-1: I'm baffled by this one. They return their top 8 players from a 23-11 team. And a very good recruiting class- two top 100 national players. Good PG that can control tempo and get the ball to scorers? Check (Tinsley). Shooting guard that can fill it up? Check (Jenkins). Go to scorer in tight games? Check (Taylor). Dominant defensive big man? Check (Ezeli). What is not to like?

Texas A&M 100-1: Undervalued. There is a new coach (Kennedy) and that is always an unknown. But they have the making of a good team that can potentially win the big 12. There is a potential star in Khris Middleton (14 pts; 5 reb). A go to big man on the blocks (Loubeau). Tough, strong interior defenders/rebounders- Roberson and Turner. A potential impact transfer (Turner from Washington). A highly touted PG coming in (Jamal Branch).

Honorable mention: Florida 40-1 (terrific backcourt- arguably the nation's best with Walker, Boynton, Beal, transfer Rosario and Wilbekin) Missouri 75-1 (all their best players returning).

Sell:

Memphis 30-1: Pastner has shown an ability to pick up where Calipari left off in terms of recruiting the nation's best players. Pastner signed the #1 class in 2010-2011. All of those players are returning to school for their sophomore campaigns. Adonis Thomas- a 5-star wing is coming on board for 2011-2012. It is a team full of talent. But Pastner is still learning on the fly. I believe he will have a long, successful career. But does he have the moxy to make a deep tournament run this year after experiencing a shake-up on the staff? Cyprien left for A&M. Willis Wilson was named the head coach of Texas A&M Commerce.

I may be wrong about Memphis, but I don't see enough interior strength to win slugfests. Tarik Black is a beast at 6'8" 252. But the team as a whole is athletic but thin. I also think the staff turnover does have an effect. The same could be said for A&M and Missouri who are on my "buy" list. But those are teams with lots of talented juniors and seniors. Memphis is going to be a predominately underclassmen led squad.

Texas 30-1. What in the world? They have better odds than all the "buy" teams I listed? I don't see it. I understand that they exceeded expectations last year. And Rick Barnes has consistently finished at the top of the big 12. In February they looked like the best team in the country especially after they dismantled Kansas in Lawrence in the 2nd half on the road. But championships aren't decided in February. Rick Barnes has taken teams to the NCAA for 16 years in a row. There is a lot to be said for that consistency. But he has only been to the Final Four once despite the ability to field an NBA all-star team with former players- Augustin, Durant, Aldridge, etc.. and last year was one of his better shots to repeat that. This year's team should be a large drop-off.

They lost about 80% of their scoring and rebounding. They return J'Covan Brown, Alexis Wangemene and Clint Chapman (redshirt). They do have a good freshman class coming in- but only one who is considered a "difference" maker- Myck Kabongo. This could be Rick Barnes' weakest team on paper since he has been at Texas. And like Memphis, they will lack frontcourt strength. Barnes' teams have usually overpowered opponents on the boards. With Hamilton and Thompson leaving for the draft and a lack of size to replace them along with seniors Gary Johnson and Matt Hill, I have a hard time seeing Texas repeating that pattern.

Louisville 15-1: Peyton Siva is a terrific point guard. Kyle Kuric is a pure shooter from the wing. The Cardinals have a strong recruiting class coming in including wide body Chase Behanan- a 6'6" 265lb freshman who has similarities to DeJuan Blair and Jared Sullinger in his ability to carve out space on the boards. But he is a few inches shorter than Sullinger so I would be hesitant to project that type of impact. Louisville also suffered some bad luck when projected starter Rakeem Buckles went down with an ACL injury in March of this year. ACL's usually take 9-12 months to recover fully.

Louisville should be one of the better teams in the Big East. But the 6th best odds to win the national championship? I can't see it. They lose leading scorer Preston Knowles (15ppg). They also lose Terrence Jennings- their top returning big man to the NBA draft. So down low where the wars are won, Louisville has a 6'10 215 lb junior- Gorgui Dieng who averaged 6 pts and 4 rebounds last year. They have a 6'7" 200 lb junior coming off an ACL injury suffered in the Spring. A 6'9" 220 lb junior in Stephan Van Tresse- who was sparingly used last year (3 pts per game). Jared Shopshire- a 6'8" 205 lb forward coming off a redshirt. And Behanan who is a freshman. I've seen national championship frontlines before and that is not one of them.

Honorable mention: Purdue 60-1 (major rebuilding even with Hummel back); Kansas 40-1 (two big time players in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, but not enough pieces around them); Ohio State 7-1 (how could you not love Sullinger- a dominant big man likely to put up Blake Griffin like numbers? But they lose Lighty, Diebler and Lauderdale who accounted for nearly 45% of the minutes. Ohio State has a good recruiting class coming in but no top 25 national types).

Hold:

North Carolina 3-1: This team has stockpiled a ridiculous amount of talent. They are the favorites to win a national championship. Anything short of that will be a disappointment to them. They have a sick frontcourt- Zeller; McAdoo; Henson; Barnes; Hairston. Those five guys will likely play in the NBA. The backcourt is also packed with talent: Strickland, McDonald, Bullock and Kendall Marshall. Marshall had a terrific assists to turnover ratio of almost 3:1. His court vision is superb and he has the finishers to make defenses look silly. They will overpower most teams with their talent. The big question with UNC is will they defend well enough to beat teams that can neutralize their talent?

Kentucky 5-1: seems to be fairly valued. There is a strong correlation between 5-star recruits and national championships. Kentucky has 6 5-star recruits that they will trot out. They caught a break when Terrence Jones decided to return for his sophomore season. They are still young- all of these 5-star players are sophomores and freshmen. Darius Miller is the only upper classman expected to play big minutes. I also wonder how much Kentucky will miss Josh Harrellson? He was a big body that did so many of the valuable things (picks, rebounds, defending the rim) that go unnoticed- like Josh Lomers for Baylor when they made their elite 8 run in 2009-2010. But their talent is enough to make these odds seem reasonable.

Duke 15-1: Duke loses a lot of scoring- Singler, Irving, Smith. They do welcome the top recruit- Austin Rivers. They have great backcourt talent- Curry, Dawkins, Rivers, Cook. They have three Plumlee brothers (Miles, Mason and Marshall) along with Ryan Kelly to anchor the front line. I debated whether Duke should be put in the "buy" category. I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable saying Ohio State has better talent. But they do lose 60% of their scoring. Rivers will replace a lot of that. Will it be enough? Is the front court tough enough to win a national championship?

Honorable mention: Syracuse 15-1: they lose Rick Jackson who led the Big East in rebounding- 10.3. He logged 35 minutes per game. But they return everyone else and they bring in Rakeem Christmas- a long shot blocking center. They should be a solid top 10 team and national contender. Odds seem right on for me.